01 February 2015

Queensland Election: 400 votes could decide the outcome of the state election

Fewer than 400 votes could determine the outcome of this historic election.

The current state of play is:

ALP   -   43
LNP   -   40
KAP  -     2
IND   -     1 (Peter Wellington in Nicklin)

In Doubt  -    3  (Mansfield, Maryborough, Whitsunday)

The LNP cannot win the election in its own right.

If they win all 3 seats which are in doubt and the Katter Australian Party sided with them (which Bob Katter said on Channel 7 last night that he would not do) this would give the LNP 45 seats on the floor of the House - a real hung parliament.

The Independent Peter Wellington has publicly said he will not support a minority LNP government.

If 2 or 3 of the doubtful seats go to Labor, that would give the ALP a majority government with either 45 or 46 seats.

If Labor wins only 1 of the doubtful seats, it could form government with 44 seats and presumably Peter Wellington as Speaker. (Peter Wellington's handling of upstarts like Jarrod Bleijie would be a delight to behold!)

The latest official 2-candidate preferred margins in the 3 seats according to the ECQ are:

Mansfield 25 (ALP ahead)
Maryborough 685 (ALP ahead)
Whitsunday  84 (LNP ahead)

50 percent of these margins (plus 1) is enough to swing the vote the other way.

Based on the current margins, it would require 13 votes to reverse the current trend in Mansfield, 343 votes in Maryborough and 43 votes in Marborough, a total of 399.

So, just 399 votes could ultimately determine the outcome of the 2015 election when it goes down to the wire with all postal and absentee votes in.

Probably not quite the result Campbell Newman was thinking when he cockily called the snap general election on January 6.

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