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28 January 2015

Leese the best long shot since High Jinx in 1960

Five of the six Lockyer candidates attend the ballot
 in Gatton: Steve Leese (ALP), Clare Rudkin (Greens),
Ian Rickuss (LNP), Pauline Hanson (One Nation)
 and David Neuendorf (KAP). 
HE IS paying $26 to win the seat of Lockyer but the good oil suggests Labor candidate Steve Leese might be worth a flutter with the bookies.

Cr Paul Tully, the only political pundit to tip Labor would win just seven seats in the 2012 state election, noted the odds on Leese currently listed by SportsBet and was reminded of High Jinx's win in the 1960 Melbourne Cup at odds of 50-1.

Sitting LNP member Ian Rickuss remains favourite at $1.15 with One Nation's Pauline Hanson paying $5 and Katter's Australian Party (KAP) candidate Dave Neuendorf listed at $11.

Cr Tully was not saying Mr Leese would win, but he said that his odds were worth considering.

"The best long shot in the entire election in all 89 electorates is the Labor candidate in Lockyer," Cr Tully said.

"Labor in the past 10 years has come close to winning the seat of Lockyer and (the seat) has had a lot of growth areas which are predominantly Labor voters.

"I think $26 is more than the true figure and for anyone that likes some juicy odds in the election, the Labor candidate Steve Leese represents a good outside bet.

"He is probably as good (a bet) as High Jinx winning the Melbourne Cup in 1960.

"It all depends how the preferences are allocated. As One Nation and KAP are just preferencing with each other and not allocating a whole suite of preferences a lot of their votes will exhaust.

"If that happens and the LNP vote is significantly down, because of the One Nation and KAP vote, Labor could come up the middle and win. But it is still a real long shot."

Cr Tully had a sneaky $6 on Mr Leese but was unimpressed that SportsBet would not allow for a higher wager. He initially tried to put $100 on but SportsBet locked the bet out.

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